by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2012 03:18:00 PM

Some interesting year end observations from Patrick Mayock at HotelNewsNow.com: ‘Unexpected strength’ marks 2012 performance. A few themes for 2012:

1. Record demand
“We are still selling more rooms than we ever have before and expect that growth to remain strong in 2013,” said Vail Brown, VP of global business development and marketing at STR ... The U.S. hotel industry set a record during July for the most roomnights ever sold in a single month with 105,954,122. The summer months of June and August were strong as well, both posting more than 100 million roomnights sold.

Through November, the most recent data available, U.S. hotels had sold approximately 1 billion roomnights, an increase of 2.9% from the same period in 2011.
...
2. Supply slowing creeping
“In the U.S., we are seeing a bump in construction year to date,” Brown said.
...
Preliminary data suggests 2012 in aggregate ended with a 0.5% increase in supply.

3. Rates returning to the peak
While the hotel industry still hasn’t reached its 2008 peak in average daily rate of $107.41, it’s beginning to make headway, Brown said.
...
Preliminary data also suggests the hotel industry in general finished the year with a 4.3% increase in ADR to $106.17.

Still, hoteliers have a lot of ground to make up on an inflation-adjusted basis, Brown said.

4. Group’s late-year surge
“We really haven’t seen a large fluctuation in demand this year as compared to last year—until October where we really saw group demand skyrocket past the prior two years,” Brown said.

Hoteliers sold 11.1 million group roomnights during the month, which was well above the “golden year” of 2007, she said.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2012 12:41:00 PM

It looks like auto sales are finishing strong in 2012, however the growth rate for auto sales will probably slow in 2013. This is important because auto sales have been a key growth sector over the last few years, and that contribution will probably slow going forward. 

The following table shows annual light vehicle sales, and the change from the previous year.  Light vehicle sales have seen double digit growth for three consecutive years, but that will probably slow in 2013.

Light Vehicle Sales
	Sales (millions)	Annual Change
2005	16.9	0.5%
2006	16.5	-2.6%
2007	16.1	-2.5%
2008	13.2	-18.0%
2009	10.4	-21.2%
2010	11.6	11.1%
2011	12.7	10.2%
20121	14.5	13.5%
20132	15.0	3.7%
1Estimate, 2Forecast

Here are a couple of December forecasts:

TrueCar is forecasting: December 2012 New Car Sales Expected to Be Up 10 Percent According to TrueCar; December 2012 SAAR at 15.6M, Highest Since December 2007

For December 2012, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,370,658 units, up 10.3 percent from December 2011 and up 19.9 percent from November 2012 (on an unadjusted basis)
...
The December 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.6 million new car sales, up from 13.6 million in December 2011 and up from 15.5 million in November 2012

From Edmunds.com: Edmunds.com Forecasts 1.36 Million New Cars Sold in December

Edmunds.com ... forecasts that 1,361,899 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in December for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 15.4 million light vehicles. This would bring total 2012 sales to 14.5 million light vehicles, which would be a 13.5 percent increase over 2011, and the highest annual total since 2007.

“December will be the icing on the cake for 2012 – it’s a strong close for a year that had significant auto sales growth throughout,” says Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Along with the momentum of the improving economy, December car sales have been helped by compelling advertising, generous deals from most automakers, and the rush of demand unexpectedly and unfortunately caused by Hurricane Sandy.”

And for 2013: Edmunds.com Predicts 2013 Sales Trends: Growth of New Car Sales Will Slow, Used Car Prices Will Fall

Car sales will grow in 2013, but that growth will slow to a single-digit pace, says Edmunds.com ... Edmunds.com projects 15 million new car sales in 2013, a four percent increase over 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2012 10:00:00 AM

• From the Chicago ISM:

December 2012:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the Chicago Business Barometer was up for a third month, lumbering along since September's 3 year low. The Business Barometer was guided higher almost exclusively by a sizable advance in New Orders.

PMI: Increased to 51.6 from 50.4. (Above 50 is expansion).

Employment: at a three year low of 45.9, down from 55.2

New orders increased to 54.0 from 45.3.
 
This was above expectations of a reading of 51.0.

• From the NAR: November Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, rose 1.7 percent to 106.4 in November from a downwardly revised 104.6 in October and is 9.8 percent above November 2011 when it was 96.9. The data reflect contracts but not closings.
...
The index is at the highest level since April 2010 when it hit 111.3 as buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit. With the exception of several months affected by tax stimulus, the last time there was a higher reading was in February 2007 when the index reached 107.9.

Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.  However, because of the increase in short sales that take longer to close, some of these contract signings are probably for a few months from now.  This was slightly below consensus expectations of a 1.8% increase.

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2012 08:22:00 PM

First from Neil Irwin at the WaPo: Three ways Washington could mess up the recovery in 2013. A few excerpts:

Going off the cliff. This is the most scrutinized possibility, the one that has been widely analyzed (and, as of Thursday morning, at least, seemed like a growing possibility).
...
If the nation goes fully off the fiscal cliff, and stays there, the Congressional Budget Office estimates it would amount to a drag on gross domestic product of 2.9 percentage points in 2013 ...
...
A deal with too much austerity, too fast. Going off the fiscal cliff is probably not even the likeliest risk (though the odds are changing all the time). Another risk is that while there is a deal to avert the entirety of the cliff, it is a deal that calls for enough austerity in 2013 to seriously undermine the nation’s economic prospects.
...
Debt ceiling hijinks. If the nation goes over the fiscal cliff, the results would be bad, but not catastrophic; we’ve had recessions before, we’ll have them again. But in late February or early March comes a deadline with even more at stake: The legally mandated cap on how much debt the Treasury can issue will become a binding constraint, setting the stage for the same messy negotiations that walloped financial markets and business confidence in the summer of 2011.

From an economic perspective, the thing that makes debt ceiling negotiations so perilous is the threat that Congressional Republicans are making — in effect, to allow the U.S. government to default on its debts if they don’t get their way on major spending cuts.

I think a fiscal agreement will be reached in the next couple of weeks (points 1 & 2), but we will have to see the details before analyzing the drag on the US economy. I'm not worried about the "debt ceiling" (point 3) - as I noted in 2011, there have been threats to not pay the bills before (that is what the debt ceiling is about), and it would be political suicide to default - so a bill will be passed.

Friday economic releases:
• At 9:45 AM, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 51.0, up from 50.4 in November.

• At 10:00 AM, the Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in the index.

Earlier on new home sales:
• New Home Sales at 377,000 SAAR in November
• New Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2012 06:46:00 PM

Earlier I posted a graph that shows the "distressing gap" between new and existing home sales. I've argued that this gap has been mostly caused by distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) and that eventually the gap would close.

Another way to look at this is a ratio of existing to new home sales.

This ratio was fairly stable from 1994 through 2006, and then the flood of distressed sales kept the number of existing home sales elevated and depressed new home sales. (Note: This ratio was fairly stable back to the early '70s, but I only have annual data for the earlier years).

Click on graph for larger image.

In general the ratio has been trending down, although it increased over the last few months with the recent pickup in existing home sales. I expect this ratio to trend down over the next several years as the number of distressed sales declines and new home sales increase.

Note: Existing home sales are counted when transactions are closed, and new home sales are counted when contracts are signed. So the timing of sales is different.

Earlier:
• New Home Sales at 377,000 SAAR in November
• New Home Sales graphs