by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2013 10:27:00 AM

In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and several other house price indexes.

From FNC: Home Prices Up 0.3% in November; Price Increase Expected to Continue

Based on recorded sales of non-distressed properties (existing and new homes) in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, the FNC 100-MSA composite index shows that home prices nationally were up 0.3% in November. This was the ninth consecutive month that prices moved higher, leading to a total appreciation rate of 5.3% year to date. For the 12 months ending in November, home prices rose 4.2%, the largest year-over-year increase since October 2006. All three composite indices show similar trends of price recovery. ...

Two-thirds of the component markets tracked by the FNC 30-MSA composite index show continued price improvement in November. Las Vegas recorded the largest month-to-month increase, up 3.4% from October. Low inventory has contributed to the city’s rapidly rising prices in recent months. Chicago continues to lag behind other major cities in the housing recovery; home prices declined 0.8% in the 12 months ending in November. The city’s foreclosure sales remain at elevated levels; one in three homes sold are foreclosures or short sales. The recovery in Phoenix continues to significantly outpace the rest of the country. Home prices have surged 23.6% year to date. Foreclosure sales continue to shrink rapidly, making up only 13.0% of total home sales in November.

The year-over-year change continued to increase in November, with the 100-MSA composite up 4.2% compared to November 2011. The FNC index turned positive on a year-over-year basis in July - that was the first year-over-year increase in the FNC index since year-over-year prices started declining in early 2007 (over five years ago).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from FNC shows their Composite 10, 20, and 100 indexes, and the year-over-year change (light blue) in the composite 100 index. Note: The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.

The key is the indexes are now showing a year-over-year increase indicating prices probably bottomed early in 2012.

by Calculated Risk on 1/14/2013 08:45:00 AM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for November today. According to LPS, 7.12% of mortgages were delinquent in November, up from 7.03% in October, and down from 7.83% in November 2011.

LPS reports that 3.51% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 3.61% in October, and down from 4.20% in November 2011.

This gives a total of 10.63% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 1,999,000 properties that are 30 or more days, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,584,000 properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure.
• 1,767,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of ​​5,350,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in November. This is up slightly from 5,300,000 in October, and down from 6,172,000 in November 2011.

This following graph from LPS shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

Click on graph for larger image.

Even though delinquencies were up slightly in November, it was mostly seasonal. However there was a large increase in delinquencies in the areas impacted by Hurricane Sandy, From LPS:

The November data also showed that the impact of Hurricane Sandy continued in ZIP codes hit hardest by the storm. While national delinquencies are moving in line with seasonal trends – that is, tending to rise slightly through the remainder of the calendar year – mortgage delinquencies increased sharply in those areas affected by Sandy. Whereas the national delinquency rate has increased 3.7 percent since August of this year, delinquencies in Sandy-impacted ZIPs have risen at more than threefold that pace – climbing 15.4 percent in Conn., 15.2 percent in N.J. and 14.8 percent in N.Y.

The second graph from LPS shows foreclosure starts were off sharply. From LPS:

The November Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows the national foreclosure inventory dropped to 3.51 percent in November, representing an almost 10 percent decline from September 2012, when newly instituted National Mortgage Settlement requirements began to influence the pace of first-time foreclosure starts. As noted in last month’s Mortgage Monitor release, LPS expects foreclosure starts to rebound as mortgage servicers incorporate the new procedural requirements into their operations in the coming months.

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2013 09:23:00 PM

Monday:
• At 8:45 AM ET, LPS will release their Mortgage Monitor report for November.

• At 4:00 PM Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will speak at the University of Michigan's Rackham Auditorium. Here is the topic: "Chairman Bernanke visits the University of Michigan for a conversation with Ford School Dean Susan M. Collins on monetary policy, recovery from the global financial crisis, and long-term challenges facing the U.S. economy". The event will be streamed live, and Bernanke will take questions on Twitter: #fordschoolbernanke

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of Jan 13th
• Summary for Week Ending Jan 11th

The Asian markets are mixed tonight; the Shanghai Composite index is up slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P futures are up 3 and DOW futures are up 25 (fair value).

Oil prices have moved sideways recently WTI futures at $94.03 per barrel and Brent at $110.83 per barrel. Gasoline prices are down slightly over the last couple of days.

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2013 02:23:00 PM

Another update on gasoline prices. From the EIA (Energy Information Administration):

EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, will fall to an average of $105 per barrel in 2013 and $99 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012, falls to an average of $16 per barrel in 2013 and $8 per barrel in 2014, as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving Mid-continent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.

EIA expects that falling crude prices will help national average regular gasoline retail prices fall from an average $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to annual averages of $3.44 per gallon and $3.34 per gallon in 2013 and 2014, respectively.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the EIA forecasts for crude and gasoline. There are some seasonal factors for gasoline with prices rising during the summer. This forecast is mostly just some small changes to current prices, and as we all know, there can be wild event driven swings for oil and gasoline prices.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com showing the roller coaster ride for gasoline prices last year. Prices are up a little this year, but still near the recent low.

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2013 10:33:00 AM

Jim the Realtor posted a short and interesting video.

Since the market is "hot" in Carmel Valley, San Diego, and there is very little inventory, some sellers are pushing up the price with the expected result - no takers.

As Jim notes: "I don't think you are going to buffalo today's buyers. I don't think they are going for. They have access to all the data. They know the comps. They know the one around the corner is priced [significantly less]."

"Price pushing" will probably contribute to some increase in inventory this year.