RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2013 11:45:00 AM
Saturday, December 14, 2013
Schedule for Week of December 15th
The key event this week will be the FOMC statement and press conference on Wednesday. It is possible that the FOMC will start to reduce the monthly purchases of assets (aka "taper QE3"). I'll post a preview soon.
There are three key housing reports that will be released this week, housing starts for September, October, and November on Wednesday, homebuilder confidence survey on Tuesday, and existing home sales on Thursday.
For manufacturing, Industrial Production for November, and the NY Fed (Empire State), Philly Fed, and Kansas City Fed December surveys will be released this week. For prices, CPI will be released on Tuesday.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 4.5, up from -2.2 in November (above zero is expansion).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for November.This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.4%.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for November. The consensus is for no change in CPI in November and for core CPI to increase 0.1%.
10:00 AM ET: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 55, up from 54.0 in November. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September, October and November. Total housing starts were at 891 thousand (SAAR) in August. Single family starts were at 628 thousand SAAR in August.
The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 952 thousand (SAAR) in November.
During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. It is possible the FOMC will start to reduce QE purchases following this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 337 thousand from 368 thousand last week.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.0, up from 6.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for sales of 5.02 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in October were at a 5.12 million SAAR.
As always, a key will be inventory of homes for sale.
8:30 AM: Q3 GDP (third estimate). This is the third estimate of Q3 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.6% annualized in Q3, unchanged from the second estimate.
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2013
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.
Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 641 Institutions
by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2013 09:45:00 AM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for December 13, 2013.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
The first failure in six weeks and an action termination caused two removals from the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. After removal, the list includes 641 institutions with assets of $219.4 billion. A year ago, the list held 845 institutions with assets of $312.97 billion.Note on the unofficial list:
Texas Community Bank, National Association, The Woodlands, TX ($159 million) failed this week. A media report stated that the Consent Order against Town & Country Bank and Trust Company, Bardstown, KY ($250 million) had been terminated. Next Friday, we anticipate for the OCC to provide an update of its enforcement action activity through mid-November 2013.
Because the FDIC does not publish the official list, a proxy or unofficial list can be developed by reviewing press releases and published formal enforcement actions issued by the three federal banking regulators, reviewing SEC filings, or through media reports and company announcements describing that the bank is under a formal enforcement action. For the most part, the official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a safety & soundness CAMELS composite rating of 4 or 5 (the banking regulators use the FFIEC rating system known as CAMELS, which stands for the components that receive a rating including Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management quality, Earnings strength, Liquidity strength, and Sensitivity to market risk. A composite rating is assigned from the components, but it does not result from a simple average of the components. The composite and component rating scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest). Customarily, a banking regulator will only issue a safety & soundness formal enforcement when a bank has a composite CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, which reflects an unsafe & unsound financial condition that if not corrected could result in failure. There is high positive correlation between banks with a safety & soundness composite rating of 4 or worse and those listed on the official list. For example, many safety & soundness enforcement actions state in their preamble that an unsafe & sound condition exists, which is the reason for action issuance.
Since 1991, the banking regulators have statutorily been required to publish formal enforcement actions. For many reasons, the banking regulators have a general discomfort publishing any information on open banks especially formal enforcement actions, so not much energy is expended on their part ensuring the completeness of information in the public domain or making its retrieval simple. Given the difficulty for easy retrieval of all banks operating under a safety & soundness formal enforcement action, the unofficial list fills this void as a matter of public interest.
All of the banks on the unofficial list have received a safety & soundness formal enforcement action by a federal banking regulator or there is other information in the public domain such as an SEC filing, media release, or company statement that describe the bank being issued such an action. No confidential or non-public information supports any bank listed and a hypertext link to the public information is provided in the spreadsheet listing. The publishers make every effort to ensure the accuracy of the unofficial list and welcome all feedback and any credible information to support removal of any bank listed erroneously.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Bank Failure #24 in 2013: Texas Community Bank, National Association, The Woodlands, Texas
by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2013 07:52:00 PM
As of September 30, 2013, Texas Community Bank, National Association had approximately $160.1 million in total assets and $142.6 million in total deposits.This might be the last failure this year, and that would make the number of failures this year the least since 2007 when only 3 banks failed (25 banks failed in 2008 - so this year will be close to 2008, and 51 banks failed last year).
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $10.8 million. ... Texas Community Bank, National Association is the 24th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Texas.
Lawler: Update Table of Distressed Sales and Cash buyers for Selected Cities in November
by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2013 04:48:00 PM
Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in November.
From CR: This is just a few markets, but total "distressed" share is down significantly, mostly because of a decline in short sales. Foreclosure are down in most areas too.
The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back in markets (like Vegas and Phoenix) the share of all cash buyers will probably decline.
Note: Several key areas have not reported for November yet. Existing home sales for November will be released next week on Thursday, and the consensus is for sales to decline to a 5.05 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), down from 5.12 SAAR in October.
| Short Sales Share | Foreclosure Sales Share | Total "Distressed" Share | All Cash Share | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov-13 | Nov-12 | Nov-13 | Nov-12 | Nov-13 | Nov-12 | Nov-13 | Nov-12 | |
| Las Vegas | 21.0% | 41.2% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 28.0% | 51.9% | 43.7% | 52.7% |
| Reno | 17.0% | 41.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 23.0% | 50.0% | ||
| Phoenix | 7.8% | 23.2% | 8.0% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 36.1% | 34.0% | 43.2% |
| Minneapolis | 5.0% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 24.5% | 22.0% | 35.6% | ||
| Mid-Atlantic | 7.5% | 11.9% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 15.7% | 20.6% | 19.6% | 20.0% |
| Toledo | 37.2% | 40.9% | ||||||
| Tuscon | 32.6% | 33.8% | ||||||
| Des Moines | 19.9% | 22.1% | ||||||
| Peoria | 21.8% | 21.2% | ||||||
| Omaha | 21.6% | 19.8% | ||||||
| Hampton Roads | 26.9% | 28.3% | ||||||
| Northeast Florida | 36.4% | 41.8% | ||||||
| Spokane | 16.0% | 9.1% | ||||||
| Memphis* | 20.4% | 24.4% | ||||||
| Birmingham AL | 21.0% | 26.5% | ||||||
| Springfield IL | 17.0% | 15.8% | ||||||
| *share of existing home sales, based on property records | ||||||||
Hotel Occupancy Rate increases 0.2% year-over-year in latest Survey
by Calculated Risk on 12/13/2013 02:32:00 PM
From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 7 December
The U.S. hotel industry reported increases in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 December 2013, according to data from STR.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is close to normal levels.
In year-over-year comparisons, occupancy rose 0.2 percent to 55.4 percent; average daily rate was up 1.9 percent to US$109.70; and revenue per available room increased 2.1 percent to US$60.82.
emphasis added
Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average for the year 2000 through 2013.
Click on graph for larger image.The red line is for 2013 and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.
Note: Although 2009 was the worst year since the Depression, there was a brief period in 2001 when the occupancy rate was even lower than in 2009 due to the attacks on 9/11. In 2005, the occupancy rate was very high at the end of the year due to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Through December 7th, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is slightly higher than the same period last year and is tracking at pre-recession levels.
This has been a solid year for the hotel industry and will be the best year for the hotel industry since 2007 (right before the recession).
Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
