by Calculated Risk on 1/30/2014 08:36:00 AM

I'll have more on GDP soon. From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2013 (advance estimate)

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
...
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The DOL reports:

In the week ending January 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, an increase of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 329,000. The 4-week moving average was 333,000, an increase of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 332,250.

The previous week was revised up from 326,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 333,000.

This was the above the consensus forecast of 327,000.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2014 08:36:00 PM

It is likely that the Fed will change their forward guidance soon since the unemployment rate is approaching 6.5%. The Fed has been clear that 6.5% is not a trigger, but the wording will have to change soon.

It is very possible that there will be more emphasis on inflation as Cardiff Garcia at the FT Alphaville discusses The Fed’s converging misses on inflation and unemployment

[L]ooking ahead, there are at least two reasons why the Yellen Fed might soon consider, or at least should consider, downplaying the unemployment rate threshold in its forward guidance in favour of a greater emphasis on inflation.

The first, and more widely discussed, is that there remains uncertainty about what is causing the demographic-adjusted decline in the labour force participation rate, and therefore it’s also uncertain how reliably the unemployment rate is reflecting labour market health. ...

The second reason is partly a matter of simple mathematics. The unemployment rate, now at 6.7 per cent, has been falling quickly towards the Fed’s central tendency forecast of 5.2-5.8 per cent for the long-term rate, while the latest year-on-year readings for both core and headline inflation (1.1 and 0.9 per cent respectively) have remained well below the Fed’s explicit 2 per cent target — as they have for nearly two years.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 327 thousand from 326 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Q4 GDP report. This is the advance estimate of Q4 GDP from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q4.

• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% decrease in the index.

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2014 04:38:00 PM

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in December to 2.39% from 2.43% in November. Freddie's rate is down from 3.25% in December 2012, and this is the lowest level since February 2009. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". 

Note: Fannie Mae will report their Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate for December on Friday.

Click on graph for larger image

Although this indicates progress, the "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%. 

The serious delinquency rate has fallen from 0.86 percentage points over the last year - and at that rate of improvement, the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until mid-to-late 2015. 

Very few seriously delinquent loans cure with the owner making up back payments - most of the reduction in the serious delinquency rate is from foreclosures, short sales, and modifications. 

So even though distressed sales are declining, I expect an above normal level of distressed sales for another 2+ years (mostly in judicial foreclosure states).

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2014 02:00:00 PM

FOMC Statement:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that growth in economic activity picked up in recent quarters. Labor market indicators were mixed but on balance showed further improvement. The unemployment rate declined but remains elevated. Household spending and business fixed investment advanced more quickly in recent months, while the recovery in the housing sector slowed somewhat. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective, but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and the unemployment rate will gradually decline toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market as having become more nearly balanced. The Committee recognizes that inflation persistently below its 2 percent objective could pose risks to economic performance, and it is monitoring inflation developments carefully for evidence that inflation will move back toward its objective over the medium term.

Taking into account the extent of federal fiscal retrenchment since the inception of its current asset purchase program, the Committee continues to see the improvement in economic activity and labor market conditions over that period as consistent with growing underlying strength in the broader economy. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in February, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $30 billion per month rather than $35 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will likely reduce the pace of asset purchases in further measured steps at future meetings. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee also reaffirmed its expectation that the current exceptionally low target range for the federal funds rate of 0 to 1/4 percent will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. In determining how long to maintain a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy, the Committee will also consider other information, including additional measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Richard W. Fisher; Narayana Kocherlakota; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Jerome H. Powell; Jeremy C. Stein; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Janet L. Yellen.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 1/29/2014 09:52:00 AM

From CoreLogic: The foreclosure inventory fell 31 percent nationally in 2013

CoreLogic® ... today released its December National Foreclosure Report, which provides data on completed U.S. foreclosures and the national foreclosure inventory. According to CoreLogic, there were 620,111 completed foreclosures across the country in 2013 compared to 820,498 in 2012, a decrease of 24 percent. For the month of December, there were 45,000 completed foreclosures, down from 52,000 in December 2012, a year-over-year decrease of 14 percent. On a month-over-month basis, completed foreclosures decreased 4.1 percent, from 47,000 reported in November 2013.

Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 4.8 million completed foreclosures across the country. As a basis of comparison, prior to the decline in the housing market in 2007, completed foreclosures averaged 21,000 per month nationwide between 2000 and 2006.

As of December 2013, approximately 837,000 homes in the United States were in some stage of foreclosure, known as the foreclosure inventory, compared to 1.2 million in December 2012, a year-over-year decrease of 31 percent. The foreclosure inventory as of December 2013 represented 2.1 percent of all homes with a mortgage compared to 3.0 percent in December 2012. The foreclosure inventory was down 2.7 percent from November 2013 to December 2013.

“The foreclosure inventory fell by more than 30 percent in December on a year-over-year basis, twice the decline from a year ago,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The decline indicates that the distressed foreclosure inventory is healing at an accelerating rate heading into 2014.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoreLogic shows the foreclosure inventory by state (Foreclosure inventory are properties in the foreclosure process). The foreclosure inventory is still high in some judicial foreclosure states. From CoreLogic:

The five states with the highest foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes were Florida (6.7 percent), New Jersey (6.5 percent), New York (4.9 percent), Connecticut (3.6 percent) and Maine (3.6 percent).