by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2014 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending March 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 315,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 324,000. The 4-week moving average was 330,500, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average of 336,750.

The previous week was revised up from 323,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined to 330,500.

This was below the consensus forecast of 330,000.  The 4-week average is mostly moving sideways ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2014 09:07:00 PM

Some more interesting analysis from Atif Mian and Amir Sufi: Weakening Economy or Just Bad Winter?

Retail spending by households in January 2014 was a major disappointment, coming in well below expectations. January 2014 was also one of the coldest months in memory in many parts of the country. Was the extreme cold weather to blame for weak retail spending? Or is the economy weakening? These questions are especially pressing given the release of data tomorrow on February 2014 retail spending–February again was a very cold month.

We use state-level data on new auto purchases to attack this question. Here is the basic idea. Not all states experienced a horrible January 2014 — in fact, much of the western part of the country actually was warmer than normal. We can use this variation across the country in January weather to see if national auto sales were brought down by states that experienced abnormally cold temperatures.
...
The evidence is pretty clear. New auto purchases in January 2014 were more than 5% down in states that were more than 7 degrees below their normal January temperature. New auto purchases were down slightly in states that were between -7 and -4 degrees below normal. In the rest of the country where temperatures were closer to normal, new auto purchases were quite strong.

Bottom line: Blame the weakness on the snow!

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 330 thousand from 323 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for February will be released. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.2% in February, and to increase 0.1% ex-autos.

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for January. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in inventories.

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2014 04:06:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on local realtor/MLS reports I have seen across the country, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 4.60 million in February, down 0.4% from January’s seasonally adjusted pace. There is little doubt that severe weather in many parts of the country contributed to last month’s weak sales, as was the case in many areas in January.

Some of the biggest YOY declines in sales, however, were not in areas with “bad” weather, but where (1) there were big YOY declines in “distressed” sales, (2) big YOY declines in “investor” purchases; (3) big rebounds in home prices over the past year+; and (4) no growth, or in several area declines in primary-residence home purchases.

CR Note: Based on Lawler's estimate, sales will be down about 7% from the February 2013 sales rate of 4.95 million. Some of this weakness is weather related, but there are other factors (as Lawler noted there are fewer distressed sales, less investor buying, and higher prices).

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2014 02:25:00 PM

Several years ago I started following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of houses sold (conventional, REOs, and short sales).  For a long time, not much changed. But over the last 2+ years we've seen some significant changes with a dramatic shift from foreclosures (REO: lender Real Estate Owned) to short sales, and the percentage of total distressed sales declining sharply.

This data suggests healing in the Sacramento market, although some of this is due to investor buying.  Other distressed markets are showing similar improvement.  Note: The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

In February 2014, 19.1% of all resales (single family homes) were distressed sales. This was down from 19.5% last month, and down from 43.8% in February 2013.

The percentage of REOs was at 6.6%, and the percentage of short sales was 12.5%. 

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales.

There has been a sharp increase in conventional sales over the last 2 years (blue). 

Active Listing Inventory for single family homes increased 87.8% year-over-year in February. 

Cash buyers accounted for 26.5% of all sales, down from 26.6% last month (frequently investors).  This has been trending down, and it appears investors are becoming less of a factor in Sacramento.

Total sales were down 17.2% from February 2013, but conventional sales were up 17.8% compared to the same month last year. This is exactly what we expect to see in an improving distressed market - flat or even declining overall sales as distressed sales decline, and conventional sales increasing.

As I've noted before, we are seeing a similar pattern in other distressed areas.  This suggests what will happen in other areas: 1) Flat or declining overall existing home sales, 2) but increasing conventional sales,  3) Less investor buying, 4) more inventory, and 5) slower price increases.

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2014 11:33:00 AM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ...

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for January).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

Inventory in 2014 is now 5.8% above the same week in 2013 (red is 2014, blue is 2013).

Inventory is still very low, but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases. 

Note: One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  My guess is inventory will be up 10% to 15% year-over-year by the end of 2014 (inventory would still be below normal).