by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2015 03:58:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on state and local realtor/MLS reports I’ve seen from across the country, I estimate that existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of about 5.18 million in March, up 6.1 % from February’s pace and up 10.2% from last March’s seasonally-adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, I project that the NAR’s measure of the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of March will be 1.96 million, up 3.7% from February and unchanged from a year ago. Finally, I estimate that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing SF home sales price in March will be about 8% higher than a year earlier.

The NAR is scheduled to release its March existing home sales report on April 22nd. I will send out an updated projection near the middle of next week.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2015 03:34:00 PM

From CoreLogic: Press Release and National Foreclosure Report

CoreLogic® ... today released its February 2015 National Foreclosure Report which shows that the foreclosure inventory declined by 27.3 percent and completed foreclosures declined by 15.7 percent from February 2014. According to CoreLogic data, there were 39,000 completed foreclosures nationwide in February 2015, down from 46,000 in February 2014 and representing a decrease of 67 percent from the peak of completed foreclosures in September 2010. ...

CoreLogic also reports the number of mortgages in serious delinquency declined by 19.3 percent from February 2014 to February 2015 with 1.5 million mortgages, or 4 percent, in serious delinquency (defined as 90 days or more past due, including those loans in foreclosure or REO). This is the lowest delinquency rate since June 2008. On a month-over-month basis, the number of seriously delinquent mortgages declined by 1.1 percent.

As of February 2015 the national foreclosure inventory included approximately 553,000 homes compared to 761,000 homes in February 2014. The foreclosure inventory as of February 2015 represented 1.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, compared to 1.9 percent in February 2014.
...
“The number of homes in foreclosure proceedings fell by 27 percent from a year ago and stands at about one-third of what it was at the trough of the housing cycle,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “While the drop in the share of mortgages in foreclosure to 1.4 percent is a welcome sign of continued recovery in the housing market, the share remains more than double the 0.6 percent average foreclosure rate that we saw during 2000-2004.”

A couple of points: 1) Foreclosures are still an obstacle to new single family construction in some areas, and 2) Foreclosure inventory is still more than double the normal level.  But this is moving the correct direction (fewer foreclosures and fewer delinquencies).

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2015 01:52:00 PM

New long term projections from the EIA: Annual Energy Outlook 2015 and press release: EIA's AEO2015 projects that U.S. energy imports and exports come into balance, a first since the 1950s, because of continued oil and natural gas production growth and slow growth in energy demand

U.S. net energy imports decline and ultimately end in most AEO2015 cases, driven by growth in U.S. energy production—led by crude oil and natural gas—increased use of renewables, and only modest growth in demand. Net energy imports end before 2030 in the AEO2015 Reference case and before 2020 in the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases (Figure 1). Significant net energy imports persist only in the Low Oil Price and High Economic Growth cases, where U.S. supply is lower and demand is higher.

Continued strong growth in domestic production of crude oil from tight formations reduces net imports of petroleum and other liquids. Through 2020, strong growth in domestic crude oil production from tight formations leads to a decline in net petroleum imports and growth in product exports in all AEO2015 cases. The net import share of petroleum and other liquids product supplied falls from 26% in 2014 to 15% in 2025 and then rises slightly to 17% in 2040 in the Reference case. With greater U.S. crude oil production in the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases, the United States becomes a net petroleum exporter after 2020.

Click on graph for larger image.

More from the EIA:

In the AEO2015 Reference case, the price of global marker Brent crude oil is $56/barrel (bbl) (in 2013 dollars) in 2015 (Figure 4). Prices rise steadily after 2015 in response to growth in demand; however, downward price pressure from rising U.S. crude oil production keeps the Brent price below $80/bbl through 2020. U.S. crude oil production starts to decline after 2020, but increased output from non-OECD and OPEC producers helps to keep the Brent price below $100/bbl through most of the next decade and limits price increases through 2040, when Brent reaches roughly $140/bbl. There is significant variation in the alternative cases. In the Low Oil Price case, the Brent price is $52/bbl in 2015 and reaches $76/bbl in 2040. In the High Oil Price case, the Brent price reaches $252/bbl in 2040. In the High Oil and Gas Resource case, with significantly more U.S. production than the Reference case, Brent is under $130/bbl in 2040, more than $10/bbl below its Reference case price.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2015 10:07:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): In Rare Occurrence, All Ten Components of NFIB Small Business Optimism Index weakened

The Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.8 points to 95.2, declining in sympathy with the rather weak stream of reports on the economy.

... The net percent of owners reporting an increase in employment fell 5 percentage points to a net negative 1 percent of owners, down substantially from the recent high of 9 percent in December 2014.
emphasis added

A little good news: Only 11 percent of companies reported "poor sales" as the most important problem, down from 14% a year ago, and a recession high of 34%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986.

The index decreased to 95.2 in March from 98.0 in February.

by Calculated Risk on 4/14/2015 08:40:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.9% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.3% from March 2014.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $441.4 billion, an increase of 0.9 percent from the previous month, and 1.3 percent above March 2014. ... The January 2015 to February 2015 percent change was revised from -0.6 percent to -0.5 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased 1.0%.

Retail sales ex-autos increased 0.4%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.3% on a YoY basis (1.3% for all retail sales).

The increase in March was below consensus expectations of a 1.0% increase.