by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2015 11:23:00 AM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: April Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region increased modestly in April, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity and new orders were positive but remained at low readings. Firms reported overall declines in shipments this month, but employment and work hours increased at the reporting firms. Firms reported continued price reductions in April, with indicators for prices of inputs and the firms’ own products remaining negative. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest a continuation of modest growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 5.0 in March to 7.5 this month. ...

Firms’ responses suggest some improvement in labor market conditions compared with March. The current employment index increased 8 points, to 11.5, its highest reading in five months.
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 5.0 for April.

Earlier this week, the NY Fed reported: April Empire State Manufacturing Survey Indicates Sluggish Conditions

The survey’s headline general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December, falling 8 points to -1.2 in a sign that the growth in manufacturing had paused. The new orders index—a bellwether of demand for manufactured goods—was also negative, pointing to a modest decline in orders for a second consecutive month. Employment growth slowed, too.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through April. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through March.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys declined in April, and this suggests a slightly weaker ISM report for April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2015 09:30:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending April 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 282,750, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 282,250 to 282,500.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up by 1,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 282,750.

This was above the consensus forecast of 280,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2015 08:39:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 926,000. This is 2.0 percent above the revised February estimate of 908,000, but is 2.5 percent below the March 2014 rate of 950,000.

Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 618,000; this is 4.4 percent above the revised February figure of 592,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 287,000.
emphasis added

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,039,000. This is 5.7 percent below the revised February rate of 1,102,000, but is 2.9 percent above the March 2014 estimate of 1,010,000.

Single-family authorizations in March were at a rate of 636,000; this is 2.1 percent above the revised February figure of 623,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 378,000 in March.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in March.  Multi-family starts are down 2.5% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in March and are also down about 2.5% year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

This was well below expectations of 1.040 million starts in March.  Overall this was another weak report, although permits were decent.  I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2015 08:08:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Having Trouble Moving Lower

Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, though that depends largely on the individual strategies of the lender in question. Some lenders recalled rate sheets yesterday and raised rates due to afternoon market weakness. Those lenders stood a better chance of being unchanged today. Lenders who didn't reprice yesterday never saw the underlying market for mortgage-backed-securities make it back to the same levels from yesterday morning. As such, they would be slightly weaker today (higher in rate or fees). Either way, we're talking about fine-tuning adjustments rather than big-picture shifts. Conventional 30yr fixed rate quotes of 3.625% are still most prevalent for top tier scenarios, followed closely by 3.75%.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 280 thousand from 281 thousand.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for March.  The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.040 million (SAAR) in March.

• At 10:00 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of 5.0, unchanged from 5.0 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2015 02:49:00 PM

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on information collected on or before April 3, 2015."

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that the economy continued to expand across most regions from mid-February through the end of March. Activity in the Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts grew at a moderate pace, while New York, Philadelphia, and St. Louis cited modest growth. Boston reported that business activity continues to expand, while Cleveland cited a slight pace of growth. Atlanta and Kansas City described economic conditions as steady. ...

Demand for manufactured products was mixed during the current reporting period. Weakening activity was attributed in part to the strong dollar, falling oil prices, and the harsh winter weather

And on real estate:

Residential real estate activity improved in the Cleveland, Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts, while remaining steady in all others, except New York, which reported softening conditions. Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Dallas reported a slowdown in construction activity due in part to harsh weather conditions. Low-to-declining levels of inventory were cited by contacts in Boston, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, and San Francisco. The Chicago District reported that inventories were near historic lows, particularly for lower-priced homes. Most Districts reported a tight supply of residential real estate in most price points of the market. The Philadelphia and Cleveland Districts reported that mid- to high-priced homes were selling better, while Chicago, Kansas City, and Dallas reported that low- to mid-ranged homes were outpacing other categories in sales. Cleveland and Philadelphia reported an absence of first-time homebuyers. Contacts across the system uniformly reported that they were optimistic and many expect a greater than normal upswing in home sales with the coming of spring. The multifamily sector remains strong, with flat to declining vacancy rates reported in multiple Districts. Boston, Cleveland, and San Francisco reported a continued shortage of skilled labor, which was cited as a factor driving up wages.

Commercial real estate activity remained stable to expanding across many Districts. Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco all saw strong gains in industrial and office building construction. Demand for commercial properties in the city of Boston continues to be fuelled by foreign institutional investors, many of which are increasing their allocations to real estate. Contacts in Boston, Richmond, Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Dallas noted stable to strong multifamily construction. Chicago reported that leasing of industrial buildings, office and retail space all increased. Cleveland mentioned that successful developers have easier access to credit compared to prior years, and Boston reported a slight uptick in speculative activity for commercial construction.
emphasis added