by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 05:03:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Slide Sideways Again

Mortgage rates figure if they can't be pushing down to new record lows, they might as well pass the time by shooting for different records. This time around, it's the record for FLATNESS! We calculate an average 30yr fixed conventional rate every day based on the sweet-spots on multiple lender rate sheets. This gives us an 'effective rate' to track that typically falls between the two most common rate quotes in the market. For instance, the current computed rate is 3.66% and the two most common quotes are 3.625% and 3.75%. On 9 out of the past 10 days, that effective rate has moved an average of 0.01% per day. In terms of day-to-day rate movement over time, this is about as flat as it gets!

Here is a table from Mortgage News Daily:

Home Loan Rates

View More Refinance Rates

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 11:01:00 AM

Note: LA area ports were impacted by labor negotiations that were settled on February 21st.

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report for February since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 2.6% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February.   Outbound traffic was down 2.0% compared to 12 months ending in February.

Inbound traffic had been increasing, and outbound traffic had been mostly moving sideways or slightly down.  The recent downturn in exports might be more than just the labor issues (strong dollar, weakness in China).

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).

Imports were up 36% year-over-year in March, exports were down 20% year-over-year.

The labor issues are now resolved - the ships have disappearing from the outer harbor - and the distortions from the labor issues will mostly be behind us in April.

by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2015 08:35:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Index shows economic growth slowed in March

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) moved down to –0.42 in March from –0.18 in February.

Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from February, and three of the four categories made negative contributions to the index in March.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.27 in March from –0.12 in February. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was somewhat below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
emphasis added

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests economic activity was somewhat below the historical trend in March (using the three-month average).

According to the Chicago Fed:

What is the National Activity Index? The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2015 08:24:00 PM

From the NY Times: Greece Flashes Warning Signals About Its Debt

By the standards of his frenzied schedule here last week, the meeting on Friday between Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek finance minister, and Lee C. Buchheit, the dean of international debt lawyers, was a quiet one.
...
But the get-together with Mr. Buchheit carried critical meaning, according to experts here. After all, it was Mr. Buchheit who helped broker Greece’s most recent debt refinancing, in 2012.
...
Unless the creditors agree soon to release the next allotment of bailout money, Greece could have trouble making a $763 million payment to the I.M.F. on May 12. It almost certainly would not be able to meet the €11 billion in payments to the European Central Bank in June and July.

Monday:
• 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March. This is a composite index of other data.

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of April 19, 2015

• Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are up slightly and DOW futures are up 25 (fair value).

Oil prices were up sharply over the last week with WTI futures at $56.09 per barrel and Brent at $63.45 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $104, and Brent was at $107 - so prices are down over 40% year-over-year.

Below is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are up to $2.46 per gallon (down about $1.20 per gallon from a year ago).

If you click on "show crude oil prices", the graph displays oil prices for WTI, not Brent; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2015 09:43:00 AM

The NAR will report March Existing Home Sales on Wednesday, April 22nd. The consensus, according to Bloomberg, is that the NAR will report sales of 5.04 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.18 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis, up from 4.88 million SAAR in February.

Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 5 years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initial reported level of sales. 

Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer.

Over the last five years, the consensus average miss was 150 thousand with a standard deviation of 160 thousand.  Lawler's average miss was 70 thousand with a standard deviation of 45 thousand.

Note: Many analysts now change their "forecast" after Lawler's estimate is posted, so the consensus has improved a little better recently!

Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)
Month	Consensus	Lawler	NAR reported1
May-10	6.20	5.83	5.66
Jun-10	5.30	5.30	5.37
Jul-10	4.66	3.95	3.83
Aug-10	4.10	4.10	4.13
Sep-10	4.30	4.50	4.53
Oct-10	4.50	4.46	4.43
Nov-10	4.85	4.61	4.68
Dec-10	4.90	5.13	5.28
Jan-11	5.20	5.17	5.36
Feb-11	5.15	5.00	4.88
Mar-11	5.00	5.08	5.10
Apr-11	5.20	NA	5.05
May-11	4.75	4.80	4.81
Jun-11	4.90	4.71	4.77
Jul-11	4.92	4.69	4.67
Aug-11	4.75	4.92	5.03
Sep-11	4.93	4.83	4.91
Oct-11	4.80	4.86	4.97
Nov-11	5.08	4.40	4.42
Dec-11	4.60	4.64	4.61
Jan-12	4.69	4.66	4.57
Feb-12	4.61	4.63	4.59
Mar-12	4.62	4.59	4.48
Apr-12	4.66	4.53	4.62
May-12	4.57	4.66	4.55
Jun-12	4.65	4.56	4.37
Jul-12	4.50	4.47	4.47
Aug-12	4.55	4.87	4.82
Sep-12	4.75	4.70	4.75
Oct-12	4.74	4.84	4.79
Nov-12	4.90	5.10	5.04
Dec-12	5.10	4.97	4.94
Jan-13	4.90	4.94	4.92
Feb-13	5.01	4.87	4.98
Mar-13	5.03	4.89	4.92
Apr-13	4.92	5.03	4.97
May-13	5.00	5.20	5.18
Jun-13	5.27	4.99	5.08
Jul-13	5.13	5.33	5.39
Aug-13	5.25	5.35	5.48
Sep-13	5.30	5.26	5.29
Oct-13	5.13	5.08	5.12
Nov-13	5.02	4.98	4.90
Dec-13	4.90	4.96	4.87
Jan-14	4.70	4.67	4.62
Feb-14	4.64	4.60	4.60
Mar-14	4.56	4.64	4.59
Apr-14	4.67	4.70	4.65
May-14	4.75	4.81	4.89
Jun-14	4.99	4.96	5.04
Jul-14	5.00	5.09	5.15
Aug-14	5.18	5.12	5.05
Sep-14	5.09	5.14	5.17
Oct-14	5.15	5.28	5.26
Nov-14	5.20	4.90	4.93
Dec-14	5.05	5.15	5.04
Jan-15	5.00	4.90	4.82
Feb-15	4.94	4.87	4.88
Mar-15	5.04	5.18	---
1NAR initially reported before revisions.