by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2015 09:20:00 PM

Demand for gasoline has picked up significantly recently. In February, U.S. vehicle miles driven hit a new all time high.  Gasoline prices have increased too (although some of the increase was due to refinery problems).

From the LA Times: Four-dollar gasoline returns to the L.A. area

On Friday, the average for a gallon of regular in the Los Angeles area was higher than $4 for the first time since July, according to daily fuel price reports by AAA and GasBuddy.com. The recent surge in regional fuel prices has left local drivers paying more on average than motorists anywhere else in the U.S.

Analysts attributed the rise to a supply pinch caused by problems at the state's refineries, and predicted relief may not arrive in time for Memorial Day weekend road trips.

Click on graph for larger image

This graph shows WTI and Brent spot oil prices from the EIA. (Prices Friday added).  According to Bloomberg, WTI was at $59.69 per barrel on Friday, and Brent at $66.81

Prices have increased sharply off the recent bottom, but are still down 40%+ year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 5/16/2015 08:55:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are April Housing Starts on Tuesday and April Existing on Sales on Thursday.

For manufacturing, the April Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.

For prices, April CPI will be released on Friday.

Also on Friday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the U.S. economic outlook.

----- Monday, May 18th -----
10:00 AM: The May NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 57, up from 56 last month.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, May 19th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for April.

Total housing starts increased to 926 thousand (SAAR) in March. Single family starts increased to 618 thousand SAAR in March.

The consensus is for total housing starts to increase to 1.029 million (SAAR) in April.

----- Wednesday, May 20th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for April (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Fed will release the FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of April 28-29, 2015.

----- Thursday, May 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 270 thousand from 264 thousand.

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April. This is a composite index of other data.

10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for May. The consensus is for a reading of 8.0, up from 7.5 last month (above zero indicates expansion).

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for April from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

The consensus is for sales of 5.22 million on seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Sales in March were at a 5.19 million SAAR. Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.20 million SAAR.

A key will be the reported year-over-year change in inventory of homes for sale.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for May.

1:30 PM: Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Past, Present, and Future Challenges for the Euro Area, At the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Linho Sintra, Portugal

----- Friday, May 22nd -----
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

1:00 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen, U.S. Economic Outlook, At the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, Providence, Rhode Island

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2015 06:27:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the preliminary table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for a few selected cities in April.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).

Short sales are down in these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

From Lawler: Note: The Baltimore Metro area is included in the overall Mid-Atlantic region (covered by MRIS). I am showing it separately because a large portion of the YOY increase in the foreclosure share of home sales in the Mid-Atlantic region was attributable to the almost 85% YOY increase in foreclosure sales in the Baltimore Metro area.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14
Las Vegas	7.2%	12.4%	8.3%	11.4%	15.5%	23.8%	30.4%	41.4%
Reno**	6.0%	15.0%	5.0%	6.0%	11.0%	21.0%
Phoenix	2.5%	4.0%	3.8%	6.5%	6.3%	10.5%	25.3%	32.2%
Minneapolis	2.9%	5.1%	9.2%	16.0%	12.0%	21.1%
Mid-Atlantic	4.5%	5.9%	12.9%	10.0%	17.3%	15.9%	17.2%	19.5%
Baltimore Metro	4.3%	5.8%	20.7%	13.8%	25.0%	19.6%
Orlando	4.8%	9.1%	24.7%	23.7%	29.5%	32.8%	37.4%	42.4%
Chicago (city)					20.3%	27.3%
Hampton Roads					22.2%	24.4%
Chicago (city)					20.3%	27.3%
Northeast Florida					28.9%	38.0%
Toledo							30.2%	33.4%
Tucson							27.1%	30.5%
Des Moines							13.8%	17.1%
Peoria							17.3%	21.2%
Georgia***							21.6%	34.3%
Omaha							16.4%	19.7%
Richmond VA MSA			11.5%	15.4%			18.2%	22.5%
Memphis			16.1%	17.3%
Springfield IL**			10.3%	13.2%			17.9%	N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2015 03:51:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 9 May

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 3-9 May 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 1.3 percent to 67.0 percent. Average daily rate increased 4.8 percent to finish the week at US$120.59. Revenue per available room for the week was up 6.1 percent to finish at US$80.85.
emphasis added

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotels are now in the Spring travel period and business travel is solid.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2015, dashed orange is 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.  Purple is for 2000.

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is solidly above the median for 2000-2007, and solidly above last year.

Right now 2015 is even above 2000 (best year for hotels) - and 2015 will probably be the best year on record for hotels.  Note the solid gains for RevPAR too.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 5/15/2015 12:47:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on available local realtor association/MLS reports from across the country, I estimate that US existing home sales as measured by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.20 million in April, up 0.2% from March’s pace and up 9.5% from last April’s seasonally-adjusted pace.

On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the monthly gain in the inventory of existing homes for sale last month was smaller than last April’s huge jump, and I project that the NAR’s existing home inventory estimate for April will be 2.23 million, up 11.5% from March but unchanged from last April. I should point out that the NAR’s inventory estimate for April has for many years showed a larger monthly gain – and the May estimate a smaller gain/larger decline – than local realtor/MLS reports would suggest. I’m not sure why, but the differences may reflect different “pull dates” for the publicly-released reports relative to the “NAR” reports realtor associations/MLS send to the NAR.

Finally, local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median single-family home sales price for April as estimated by the NAR was up about 8.5% from last April.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release April existing home sales on Thursday, May 21st.