by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2015 11:54:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) in April. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.2% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.1% (1.2% annualized rate) in April. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.3% (3.1% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed has the median CPI details for April here.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.2%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 1.7%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 1.8%. Core PCE is for March and increased 1.35% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.2% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.2% annualized, and core CPI was at 3.1% annualized.

On a year-over-year basis these measures suggest inflation remains below the Fed's target of 2% (median CPI is slightly above 2%).

The key question for the Fed is if these key measures will move back towards 2%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2015 08:32:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index declined 0.2 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in April and led to the slight increase in the seasonally adjusted all items index.
emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast of a 0.1% increase for CPI, and above the forecast of a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2015 07:01:00 AM

According to Black Knight's First Look report for April, the percent of loans delinquent increased 1% in April compared to March, and declined 15% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined 2% in March and were down 25% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 4.77% in April, up from 4.70% in March.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined in April to 1.51%.  This was the lowest level of foreclosure inventory since January 2008.

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down 406,000 properties year-over-year, and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 252,000 properties year-over-year.

Black Knight will release the complete mortgage monitor for April in early June.

Black Knight: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Apr 2015	Mar 2015	Apr 2014	Apr 2013
Delinquent	4.77%	4.70%	5.62%	6.21%
In Foreclosure	1.51%	1.55%	2.02%	3.17%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,463,000	1,409,000	1,634,000	1,717,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	952,000	971,000	1,187,000	1,394,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	764,000	782,000	1,016,000	1,588,000
Total Properties	3,179,000	3,162,000	3,837,000	4,699,000

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2015 07:03:00 PM

Earlier from the Philly Fed: May Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing activity in the region increased modestly in May, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were positive but remain at low readings. Employment increased at the reporting firms, but the employment index moderated compared with April. Firms reported continued price reductions in May, with indicators for prices of inputs and the firms’ own products remaining negative. The survey’s indicators of future activity suggest that firms expect continuing growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 7.5 in April to 6.7 in May. ...

Firms’ responses suggest some weakening in labor market conditions this month compared with April. ... The current employment index, however, fell 5 points, to 6.7.
emphasis added

This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 8.0 for May.

Also the Kansas City Fed reported: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined More Sharply

“Factories in our region saw an even sharper decline in May than in March or April, as exports fell further and energy-related producers saw another drop in orders,” said [Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City] “However, firms’ overall still plan a modest increase in employment over the next six to twelve months.”
...
Tenth District manufacturing activity declined more sharply in May than in previous months and producers’ expectations also fell, with both reaching their lowest levels since mid-2009. ... The month-over-month composite index was -13 in May, down from -7 in April and -4 in March ... Production fell most sharply in energy-producing states like Oklahoma and New Mexico, but it was also down in most other District states.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased slightly in May, and this suggests a another weak ISM report for May.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in prices, and a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

• At 1:00 PM, Speech by Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen, U.S. Economic Outlook, At the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, Providence, Rhode Island

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2015 03:26:00 PM

Economist Tom Lawler sent me the updated table below of short sales, foreclosures and cash buyers for several selected cities in April.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in most of these markets mostly due to a decline in short sales (Mid-Atlantic is up year-over-year because of an increase in foreclosures in Baltimore).

Short sales are down in these areas.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers has been declining.

	Short Sales Share		Foreclosure Sales Share		Total "Distressed" Share		All Cash Share
	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14	Apr-15	Apr-14
Las Vegas	7.2%	12.4%	8.3%	11.4%	15.5%	23.8%	30.4%	41.4%
Reno**	6.0%	15.0%	5.0%	6.0%	11.0%	21.0%
Phoenix	2.5%	4.0%	3.8%	6.5%	6.3%	10.5%	25.3%	32.2%
Sacramento	5.6%	9.5%	6.6%	7.5%	12.2%	17.0%	18.4%	21.9%
Minneapolis	2.9%	5.1%	9.2%	16.0%	12.0%	21.1%
Mid-Atlantic	4.5%	5.9%	12.9%	10.0%	17.3%	15.9%	17.2%	19.5%
Orlando	4.8%	9.1%	24.7%	23.7%	29.5%	32.8%	37.4%	42.4%
Florida SF	4.0%	6.9%	19.1%	21.1%	23.1%	28.0%	37.2%	43.4%
Florida C/TH	2.0%	4.5%	14.6%	15.6%	16.6%	20.1%	65.4%	70.9%
Miami MSA SF	6.2%	10.5%	18.4%	16.5%	24.7%	27.0%	37.8%	44.4%
Miami MSA C/TH	2.3%	5.5%	18.2%	17.5%	20.6%	23.0%	68.9%	73.4%
Tampa MSA SF	4.5%	7.0%	20.3%	23.2%	24.8%	30.1%	34.5%	41.6%
Tampa MSA C/TH	2.9%	4.6%	15.5%	18.8%	18.4%	23.3%	60.8%	66.7%
So. California*	4.4%	5.0%	4.5%	5.2%	8.9%	10.2%
Chicago (city)					20.3%	27.3%
Hampton Roads					22.2%	24.4%
Northeast Florida					28.9%	38.0%
Hampton Roads					22.2%	24.4%
Tucson							27.1%	30.5%
Toledo							30.2%	33.4%
Wichita							19.8%	25.1%
Des Moines							13.8%	17.1%
Peoria							17.3%	21.2%
Georgia***							21.6%	34.3%
Omaha							16.4%	22.3%
Pensacola							32.3%	35.6%
Knoxville							23.1%	25.3%
Richmond VA MSA			11.5%	15.4%			18.2%	22.5%
Memphis			16.1%	17.3%
Springfield IL**			10.3%	13.2%			17.9%	N/A
*share of existing home sales, based on property records **Single Family Only ***GAMLS