by Calculated Risk on 11/20/2010 08:55:00 AM

First an update on the bank run from the Irish Times: AIB loses €13bn in deposits due to Irish debt fears

ALLIED IRISH Banks has lost about €13 billion in deposits since the start of the year due to concerns about the financial difficulties of the Government and the banking system, the bank said in a trading statement yesterday.

Some €12 billion of the lost deposits were withdrawn, mostly by institutional and corporate depositors, since the end of June.

This is about 17% of deposits.

And on the bailout from Bloomberg: Irish Talks on Aid Plan Intensify as Banks Lose Deposits, Cowen Campaigns

Irish officials and experts from the European Union and International Monetary Fund are working through the weekend in Dublin, racing to finish an aid agreement amid pressure to act before markets tumble.

... IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said Europe is moving “too slowly” to resolve the sovereign debt crisis that began in Greece.

The Irish government is planning on releasing a four-year economic plan this coming Tuesday, and the government is expected to formally request aid after releasing the plan. A key question is if the European Commission and IMF will accept the plan or require additional action - such as raising the 12.5 per cent corporation tax.

After Ireland, the bond yields to watch are Portugal and Spain. Many analysts expect Portugal to be next in line for a bailout, and the big question is Spain.

Here are some comments from Nouriel Roubini on CNBC: Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario of Domino Debt Collapse in Europe

"The next one in line is going to be Portugal.' [Roubini said] "Due to the severity of Portuguese debt problems, Portugal is going to lose market access—and that means they are going to require IMF support as well.

But the real nightmare domino is Spain. Roubini refers to the Spanish debt problems as "the elephant in the room".

"You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line."

"But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2010 10:58:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 19, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, the Unofficial Problem Bank List rose above 900 as the OCC released its actions through the middle of October 2010 today. Net additions were 5 institutions, which pushed the list total to 903. Assets increased this week by $1.13 billion pushing the aggregate total to $419.6 billion.

There were four removals this week including the three failures -- First Banking Center, Burlington, WI ($822 million); Gulf State Community Bank, Carrabelle, FL ($117 million); and Allegiance Bank of North America, Bala Cynwyd, PA ($116 million). First Banking Center opened in 1920, survived the Great Depression, but did not make it through the Great Recession.

The other removal was the termination of a Supervisory Agreement against The First National Bank of Trenton, Trenton, TX ($147 million) by the OCC. We would not be surprised if the termination is because the Supervisory Agreement is being replaced by a Consent Order.

The nine additions this week include Mid-Wisconsin Bank, Medford, WI ($498 million Ticker: MWFS); First National Bank South, Alma, GA ($335 million); Farmers State Bank, Victor, MT ($323 million); Madison National Bank, Merrick, NY ($305 million); United Americas Bank, National Association, Atlanta, GA ($263 million); San Antonio National Bank, Refugio, TX ($249 million); First Federal Bank, A FSB, Tuscaloosa, AL ($180 million); Santa Clara Valley Bank, National Association, Santa Paula, CA ($140 million); and Sonoran Bank, N.A., Phoenix, AZ ($36 million).

Other changes this week include the Federal Reserve issuing a Prompt Corrective Action Order against Legacy Bank, Milwaukee, WI ($216 million); and the OCC converting a Formal Agreement to a Consent Order against Fidelity Bank of Florida, National Association, Merritt Island, FL ($419 million). We anticipate the FDIC will release its actions for October next week.

The Q3 FDIC Quarterly banking profile will be released soon and will probably show around 900 problem banks at the end of September.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2010 07:10:00 PM

Parabolic arc
Escape velocity near
Warp trajectory
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First Michigan Bank, Troy, Michigan, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Banking Center, Burlington, Wisconsin

As of September 30, 2010, First Banking Center had approximately $750.7 million in total assets and $664.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $142.6 million. Compared to other alternatives, First Michigan Bank's acquisition was the least costly resolution for the FDIC's DIF. First Banking Center is the 149th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Wisconsin.

Three down today with close to $1 billion in assets. A billion here, a billion there ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2010 06:12:00 PM

I pledge allegiance
To perpetual bailout
And justice for none
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From the FDIC: VIST Bank, Wyomissing, Pennsylvania, Assumes All of the Deposits of Allegiance Bank of North America, Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania

As of September 30, 2010, Allegiance Bank of North America had approximately $106.6 million in total assets and $92.0 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $14.2 million. .... Allegiance bank of North America is the 148th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Pennsylvania.

Two down today ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2010 05:14:00 PM

Note: I started posting bank failures a few years when I was predicting 100s of banks would fail. Since then it has become sort of a Friday afternoon ritual.

Endangered species
Rare Florida solvent bank
So few may exist
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Centennial Bank, Conway, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Gulf State Community Bank, Carrabelle, Florida

As of September 30, 2010, Gulf State Community Bank had approximately $112.1 million in total assets and $112.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $42.7 million. ... Gulf State Community Bank is the 147th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 28th in Florida.

Another 40% or so loss on assets. Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 11/19/2010 03:47:00 PM

Treasury released the October HAMP statistics last night.

There is some interesting data on the disposition of canceled HAMP trial modifications. The general view was that a majority of these borrowers would lose their homes in foreclosure or through a short sale. That hasn't happened yet.

The statistics, from the 8 largest servicers (about 80% of HAMP), show that most of these borrowers are in alternative modification programs or have cured the default (current of loan paid off).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the disposition of canceled HAMP trial modifications (in percentages). This represents 552 thousand canceled trial modifications as of September.

Only 3.9% of borrowers have lost their homes in foreclosure, and another 8.5% have lost their homes through a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure.

About 13% of borrowers are in the foreclosure process, and another 1.9% in bankruptcy.

So what has happened to the borrowers in all of those canceled trials? The largest percentage of borrowers are in alternative modification programs (lender programs). The next largest group is in "action pending". Some have paid off their loans (probably sold their homes), and another 7.7% have managed to become current.

So the number of foreclosures was lower than many expected, although many of the borrowers in the alternative modification programs will probably redefault (and the action pending group might also results in a number of foreclosures). Hopefully HAMP will keep updating this table.